For President Bush, a Reversal of Fortune on His Political Capital - New York TimesFor 
President Bush, a Reversal of Fortune on His Political Capital - New York Times 
 
 
 
 
June 30, 2007
News Analysis
For President Bush, a Reversal of Fortune on His Political Capital 
By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG
WASHINGTON, June 29  After a string of Republican defections this week  on 
Iraq, immigration and domestic eavesdropping  President Bush enters the final 
18 months of his presidency in danger of losing control over a party that once 
marched in lockstep with him.
First, two prominent Republican senators broke with the president on Iraq. Then, 

Mr. Bushs party abandoned him in droves on the immigration bill, sending the 
measure to its death in the Senate, despite the presidents fervent lobbying for 

it. 
And when Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee voted to issue subpoenas to 

the White House for documents related to its domestic eavesdropping program, 
three Republicans, including a longtime loyalist, Senator Orrin G. Hatch of 
Utah, joined them, and another three did not take a position.
For a president who once boasted that he had political capital and intended to 
use it, the back-to-back desertions demonstrated starkly just how little of that 

capital is left. With the nation turning its attention to who will succeed Mr. 
Bush  and Republican presidential candidates increasingly distancing themselves 

from him  even allies say it could become increasingly difficult for the 
president to assert himself over his party, much less force the Democratic 
majority in Congress to bend to his will.
When you are first elected, you have some momentum and you have more ability to 

persuade, Senator Jeff Sessions, Republican of Alabama, said in an interview. 
In the last months of any administration, getting people to do something simply 

because the president asks for it is less. Thats certainly true here.
Even weakened presidents retain tremendous influence; if nothing else, the 
conservative tenor of many of the Supreme Courts decisions in the last week is 
a reminder of the ways in which Mr. Bushs legacy will continue to shape 
politics and policy for a long time. As the president demonstrated in clashes 
with Congress over war spending and stem cell research, he still has enough 
Republican support to sustain a veto. And administration officials said Mr. Bush 

had no intention of writing off the next year and a half.
Still, for a president who once had almost absolute control over his own party 
and a proclivity to employ his power expansively if not audaciously, the last 
week was a reminder of how much things have changed. Republicans who came to 
office brimming with optimism just a few short years ago now sound as if they 
fear a long slog ahead.
One of them, Senator John Thune of South Dakota, who was elected in 2004, 
wondered whether the collapse of the immigration bill foreshadowed a long final 
18 months of the Bush presidency. With the 2008 presidential campaign 
intensifying, Mr. Thune said achieving legislative accomplishments would almost 
certainly become increasingly difficult.
Probably a lot of the heavy lifting will get pushed off. I hope that doesnt 
happen, but it probably will, Mr. Thune said Friday. I suspect a lot of whats 

going to dominate the atmosphere around here in the next several months will be 
on Iraq.
An important test of Mr. Bushs continued hold over his party will come in 
September, when his troop buildup in Iraq will be re-evaluated on Capitol Hill, 
and he will almost certainly face Republican pressure to shift course. Senators 
Richard G. Lugar of Indiana and George V. Voinovich of Ohio argued for a new 
direction this week. Even Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican 
leader, has strongly suggested Republicans will demand a change.
I think that the handwriting is on the wall that we are going in a different 
direction in the fall, Mr. McConnell told reporters last month, and I expect 
the president to lead it.
That shakiness is reflected in public opinion polls, where Republican support 
for Mr. Bush has also dipped noticeably, said Andrew Kohut, executive director 
of the Pew Research Center for People and the Press, a nonpartisan research 
group.
Mr. Kohut said Republican support for Mr. Bush was dwindling across the party 
spectrum. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 52 percent currently approve 
of Mr. Bushs job performance, down from 63 percent in April, he said. Among 
conservatives, his job approval stood at 74 percent this month, down from 86 
percent in April.
Hes gone from a president with more support from his party to someone with 
rather modest support, Mr. Kohut said, and how he goes back to where he once 
was is not clear. 
In a sense, the defeat of the immigration bill could give Mr. Bush a lift by 
taking off the agenda an issue that has sapped his strength within his base. It 
is an axiom of politics that a loss is never a victory. But conservatives were 
so up in arms about the immigration bill, which they regarded as amnesty, that 
some say it is better for Mr. Bush that it failed.
The presidents intentions were good, the heart was in the right place, the 
legislation was bad, said Senator Jim DeMint, Republican of South Carolina. If 

this had passed, America would have lost all confidence in the Congress and the 
president. I think this is going to give us a fresh start.
But as lawmakers look ahead to their own re-election campaigns, political 
analysts predict more rough times ahead for Mr. Bush. After years of demanding 
that Republicans work in service of his agenda, the president has very little 
good will stored up, said Calvin C. Jillson, a political scientist at Southern 
Methodist University in Texas, Mr. Bushs home state. 
With 2008 looking like a tough year for Republicans, Mr. Jillson said lawmakers 
would look back to their districts, rather than to Washington and the White 
House, for guidance on how to vote. That was abundantly clear on immigration, 
when even Mr. Bushs closest Republican allies  including two Texans, Senators 
John Cornyn and Kay Bailey Hutchison  openly opposed him.
When John Cornyn defects from the president, Mr. Jillson said, you know the 
presidents mojo is completely gone.
Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting.
 
 
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